What this document is
The State A / State B economic model for Fairfax County, with the two payment flows kept separate and the cost comparison stated as a trajectory rather than a snapshot.
- State A is $98/ton published for FY2027, with County staff projecting roughly $120 by 2029 and $150 by 2032.
- State B at $125/ton starts $27 above, is about $11 above in 2029, and is about $8.57 BELOW in 2032 — measured against the County’s own figures.
- State B at Phase Initial: $18.25M a year in Beneficiation Fee against $21.90M a year in Circular Royalty™ from Year 2 — two independent gross flows, reported separately.
Fairfax County
Economic Impact Report
We start above the County’s rate and end below the County’s own projection. The crossover lands at the lease expiry.
State A — the current system and its trajectory
Fairfax County sends more than 650,000 tons a year to the I-95 Energy/Resource Recovery Facility, where it is combusted to raise steam and generate electricity, and the resulting ash is landfilled on the same complex.
The County’s published commercial disposal rate is $98/ton for FY2027 (July 2026 to June 2027), up from roughly $90/ton currently. County staff have projected that rate rising to approximately $120/ton by 2029 and $150/ton by 2032 absent changes. A proposed county-wide fee intended to offset disposal costs and reduce tipping fees drew little support from supervisors as of May 2026.
| Year | State A — County cost/ton | State B — Beneficiation Fee/ton | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 | $98.00 | $125.00 | +$27.00 |
| 2029 | ~$120.00 | $131.33 | +$11.33 |
| 2032 | ~$150.00 | $141.43 | −$8.57 |
State A figures are the County’s own — a published rate and the County’s own staff projections. We have not adjusted them. State B escalates at 2.5% a year from $125/ton.
State B — Advanced Circular Manufacturing under a CSA
What State B is not. Advanced Circular Manufacturing is not incineration, not waste-to-energy, not pyrolysis and not gasification. There is no combustion at any stage, no stack and no ash, and Carbotura does not sell power, electricity or hydrogen — energy is consumed internally, never a revenue line. State B is not a replacement thermal facility under another name.
In State B the County delivers the same stream to an ACM plant and pays a Beneficiation Fee modelled at $125/ton, escalating 2.5% a year. Separately and independently, Carbotura pays the County a Circular Royalty™ on the same delivered tonnage, beginning 13 months after the first Beneficiation Fee payment.
| Year | Beneficiation Fee ($/ton) | Annual Beneficiation Fee ($M) | Royalty multiplier | Circular Royalty™ ($/ton) | Annual Circular Royalty™ ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 (pre-royalty) | $125.00 | $18.25 | — | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Year 1 (from Month 13) | $125.00 | $18.25 | 120% | $150.00 | $21.90 |
| Year 2 | $128.13 | $18.71 | 121% | $155.03 | $22.63 |
| Year 5 | $137.97 | $20.14 | 124% | $171.08 | $24.98 |
| Year 10 | $156.11 | $22.79 | 129% | $201.38 | $29.40 |
| Year 20 | $199.84 | $29.18 | 139% | $277.77 | $40.55 |
| Year 30 | $255.80 | $37.35 | 149% | $381.14 | $55.65 |
| 30-year gross | — | ~$801M | — | — | ~$1,092M |
Phase Initial, 146,000 TPY, at $125/ton. Accrual basis throughout: Year n carries Mₙ × BFₙ. The two columns are independent gross flows and are never netted. Figures ILLUSTRATIVE.
The capital comparison
Every route the County can take at the 2031 decision requires someone to fund something.
| Path | County capital | Regulatory burden | Reaches the 90% diversion aspiration? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extend or re-let combustion capacity | Depends on terms | County/operator | No — the material is still combusted and the ash still landfilled |
| Landfill the stream | None directly | County/hauler | No — it is disposal by definition |
| Advanced Circular Manufacturing | $0 at every phase | Carbotura’s | Yes — neither burned nor buried |
Carbotura’s Phase Initial is a $240M facility — $75M for the first module and $55M for each of three additional modules. That is Carbotura capital. The County commits none at any phase.
Employment
Phase Initial supports approximately 100 direct full-time roles, rising to roughly 250 at Phase Medium and 450 at Phase Expanded. These are manufacturing roles — process operation, maintenance, quality, logistics.
Employment figures are ESTIMATED from the standard per-TPD baseline, not from a county economic study.
What could make this wrong
We have no operating plant. Carbotura is development-stage; no facility is at or past Commercial Operation Date. The CSA’s condition precedent exists precisely so that this risk does not sit with the County.
The 2031 date is from County documents of 2016 and 2022 and has not been re-confirmed against a current contract. If the agreement has been amended, the timing of this conversation changes.
The County’s cost projections are projections. The $120 and $150 figures are County staff estimates, not contracted rates. If disposal costs rise more slowly than the County expects, the crossover arrives later than this model shows. The royalty is the answer to that, and it is stated separately rather than netted against the fee.
Composition. The stream split is ESTIMATED; no characterisation study has been performed for this engagement. That is a Term Sheet phase control.
No site, and no Virginia regulatory pathway completed. Both are Joint Working Group work and both can move timeline and cost.
Appendix A — Basis of presentation
All financial figures USD, ILLUSTRATIVE until Term Sheet execution. The Beneficiation Fee is set at $125/ton — a programme specification, not a quoted price. Circular Royalty™ computed under the Release 31 formula: the multiplier applies to the current-year escalated Beneficiation Fee. Accrual basis stated and kept; no table mixes bases. Accounting standard: US GAAP / GASB.
State A comparators are the County’s own: a published FY2027 rate of $98/ton and County staff projections of approximately $120/ton (2029) and $150/ton (2032). They have not been adjusted. Throughput uses the County’s own 650,000 tpy county-controlled figure rather than the operator’s higher published throughput.
The Beneficiation Fee and the Circular Royalty™ are independent transactions and appear only as separate gross lines.
Appendix B — Sources
- Fairfax County Department of Public Works and Environmental Services — commercial disposal rates schedule, FY2027
- Fairfax County — Energy/Resource Recovery Facility and I-95 Landfill Complex pages
- Fairfax County — Solid Waste Management Program budget documents and published strategy roadmap
- Fairfax County — Request for Expressions of Interest (August 2026)
- Published reporting on county disposal rates and the proposed disposal fee